South Africa’s massive 37,875 Covid-19 case surge explained
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The National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) has revealed the reason behind a big difference in the increase in daily Covid-19 case numbers reported by itself and the National Department of Health on Sunday.
The NICD and health department typically publish their daily updates on new cases around the same time on Twitter.
On Sunday night, the health department’s statistics showed a massive increase of 37,875 new cases.
Three minutes after this, the NICD tweeted its update, claiming South Africa only recorded 18,035 new cases since the previous days’ report, 19,840 less than the health department published.
However, the total number of cases to date on the infographics matched at 3,167,497.
Below are the two infographics showing the different increases in daily cases.
NICD Covid-19 update
#COVID19 UPDATE: A total of 62,414 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 18,035 new cases, representing a 28.9% positivity rate. A further 21 #COVID19 related deaths have been reported, bringing total fatalities to 90,137 to date. See more here: https://t.co/ntpHa2UFGG pic.twitter.com/QddnDwrLxu
— NICD (@nicd_sa) December 12, 2021
Department of Health Covid-19 update
As of today the cumulative number of #COVID19 cases identified in SA is 3 167 497 with 37 875 new cases reported. Today 21 deaths have been reported bringing the total to 90 137 deaths. The cumulative number of recoveries now stand at 2 913 232 with a recovery rate of 92,0% pic.twitter.com/fQVVlw5srM
— Department of Health (@HealthZA) December 12, 2021
The discrepancy confused South Africans, particularly as the larger figure would represent the country’s largest daily surge of cases since the pandemic began.
The NICD included a statement and thread with its tweet that explained the difference, but this only came after the health department’s tweet.
The institute clarified that the additional 19,840 cases it did not include in its daily tally were for retrospective cases spread over the past week.
The NICD apologised for the confusion and explained that some Covid-19 surveillance data might take longer to reflect on the national line list.
“For the NICD to report quality and comprehensive data, the institute relies on test reports from both private and public laboratories to generate daily Covid-19 statistics, including the number of new cases, new tests, and percent positivity rate,” it stated.
The NICD said it was informed that “information technology (IT) challenges” had been experienced by public sector laboratories, which resulted in reporting delays.
It reiterated its commitment to transparent reporting and said it would continue to update Covid-19 surveillance databases retrospectively as the impacted public laboratories remedied the existing IT difficulties.
The NICD’s Covid-19 surveillance reports now include the retrospective cases for the past week up to Saturday, 11 December 2021.
It showed that South Africa actually recorded 28,128 new cases on Thursday, 9 December 2021, instead of the 22,391 that were reported on the day.
That would make it the biggest daily increase in case numbers since the pandemic started.
The graph below from the NICD shows the updated daily Covid-19 reported cases and 7-day moving average.
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