Insurance data shows Covid deaths far higher than reported
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South Africa’s largest life insurers received 22,544 death claims against fully underwritten life policies in the 19 months between the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March last year and the end of September 2021.
While not all the claims were for policyholders who died as a result of Covid-19, five of South Africa’s largest life insurance companies reported a fourfold increase in death claims at the peak of the third wave against a book of 2.09 million fully underwritten new generation life policies.
These statistics are contained in the updated death claims dashboard maintained by the Continuous Statistical Investigation (CSI) Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA).
Anja Kuys, chair of the ASSA CSI committee, said the dashboard has been updated to reflect data for the three Covid-19 waves recorded to the end of September 2021.
Claims statistics are submitted by five of the country’s biggest life insurers, representing around 85% of South African individual life insurance premiums.
The dashboard was designed to track excess death claims against fully underwritten new generation individual life policies. Excess death claims represent those that exceed the expected numbers based on historical data.
Kuys said the aim of the dashboard is to provide life insurers with consolidated insights into the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic to guide accurate pricing of future policy benefits as well as ensure sufficient capital reserves.
Death claims (1 March 2020 – 30 September 2021)
According to Kuys, the pandemic has resulted in massive upward swings in the number of claims.
“While the usual number of claims expected for fully underwritten new generation life policies would be between 600 and 700 a month, over the 19 months to September 2021 the number of claims has consistently been above average, and at the peak of the second and third waves reached around 2,700,” she said.
Excess deaths
Kuys said claims for insured lives lost exceeded the expected death rate by a large margin during all three Covid-19 waves.
While statistics from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) show that the actual death rate for the overall South African population also exceeded the expected rate, Kuys noted that more significant divergences are seen for insured lives.
Kuys said that there are two main reasons for the higher excess death rate in policyholders with fully underwritten life policies:
- The average age of the insured population is higher than the average age of the overall South African population. “The numbers provided by the South African Medical Research Council include children, a group that fortunately did not experience excess deaths during the pandemic,” she said.
- The second reason, according to Kuys, is that the death rate for the insured population was lower than for the total South African population before the arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic. This resulted in life insurers recording a much higher percentage increase in excess deaths for policyholders.
“There are significant differences in insured mortality as compared to overall population mortality, which has always been present in South Africa, even pre-Covid. Therefore, it is very important for life insurers to have access to credible statistics relating to the population they insure, to ensure sufficient capital reserves and pricing.”
Kuys said that the biggest divergence in the number of claims received to expected was recorded during the second and third waves.
During the third wave, life insurers recorded the highest number of claims during July 2021, with an excess number of claims almost four times higher than expected. The excess death rate for the overall population was only two times higher than expected.
At the peak of the second wave, life insurers received death claims during January 2021 that exceeded the expected death rate by around four-and-a-half times, while the excess death rate for the overall population was around two-and-a-half times higher than expected.
At the peak of the first wave during July 2020, the excess number of claims experienced by life insurers of 192.4% was the closest to the overall population excess rate of 158%.
Higher than expected natural deaths
Of the 22,544 death claims received between March 2020 and the end of September 2021, only 4,163 were due to confirmed Covid-19 deaths, said Kuys.
However, she noted that the actual number of Covid-19 deaths is much higher. This is because death certificates do not specify Covid-19 as the cause of death and only state whether the cause of death was due to natural or unnatural causes, while data from insurers sometimes classify Covid-19 deaths as pneumonia, organ failure or natural causes.
Kuys said the dashboard does indicate that among policyholders the rate of claims due to natural causes has remained consistently above normal since the beginning of the pandemic.
Natural deaths exclude deaths caused by accidents, violent crimes, and suicide. The graph below shows that the pattern of claims received due to deaths from natural causes closely follows the patterns of the Covid-19 infection waves.
Death claims per age band
The impact of Covid-19 has been surprisingly similar across all age groups in that the number of claims have almost doubled for young lives as well as for the older ages, Kuys said.
The vaccination roll-out for adults aged 60 and over commenced mid-May 2021, and while it is perhaps too early to comment, it is promising to see that the relative increase in death claims for those age brackets are slightly lower, she said.
She added that this will continue to be monitored throughout the fourth wave and will be reported on when as soon as credible statistics are available.
Official numbers
According to the official data provided by the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, South Africa has only recorded 90,148 deaths attributed directly to Covid-19. However, numbers from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) tracking ‘natural’ deaths in the country, shows the figures are likely much higher.
This aligns with the data reported by life insurers.
Excess deaths are deaths by natural causes that are recorded but do not align with historical trends – indicating a significant deviation or disruption. While these deaths are not attributed to Covid-19 on the official record, they peak in line with Covid-19 infections and also track reported Covid deaths.
“One approach to aid understanding of the emerging Covid-19 mortality is to compare the estimated weekly excess deaths with the number of Covid-19 deaths reported by the Minister of Health,” the SAMRC said.
Between 3 May 2019 and 4 December 2021, South Africa has recorded 275,976 excess deaths.
“This comparison is hampered to some degree by the fact that the excess deaths are classified by week in which the death occurred; the reported Covid-19 deaths are classified by the date the numbers are reported to the department.”
However, if all excess natural deaths were due to Covid-19, and all Covid-19 deaths were perfectly-identified and reported, the two series would be identical, it said.
Commenting on the latest figures, the SAMRC said the number of estimated excess deaths has begun to decrease, consistent with the trend in the number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths.
Although more data is needed on the underlying causes of death, “this observation is strongly supportive that a significant proportion of the current excess mortality being observed in South Africa is likely to be attributable to Covid-19,” it said.
Read: Industry warns that December lockdowns in South Africa could cause collapse
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