Can Swedish government's budget splurge win it the 2026 election?

On the face of it, it's not looking good for Sweden's government. A poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter on Thursday gave the opposition bloc a chunky nine-point lead. That's a potential 33-seat majority. So why do the Moderates and Sweden Democrats seem so bullish?

Can Swedish government's budget splurge win it the 2026 election?
On the face of it, it's not looking good for Sweden's government. A poll by Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter on Thursday gave the opposition bloc a chunky nine-point lead. That's a potential 33-seat majority. So why do the Moderates and Sweden Democrats seem so bullish?